There is no Housing Crisis

There is no real estate crisis. There is a wash-out of speculators in the areas where prices were driven by that speculation along with a serious lack of interest for property in the great shrinking rust-belt. Quality loans at extremely low rates are readily available to “A” borrowers.

What it should be called is the “bad exotic vehicle bubble”. The investment banks made a ton by repackaging high-risk/high-interest mortgages into a more complicated structured investment vehicles like CDO’s and SIV’s. When a mortgage becomes part of one of these, the normally straight forward mortgage accounting rules get fuzzed-up, allowing the bank to book a greater portion of the anticipated interest as an asset. This became the trough that the fattest of the hogs ate.

The write-downs that are dominating the financial media space are just a reversal of the “profits” that these investments banks have already booked that would of never happened if normal accounting rules had applied in the first place. The 25 top players in this game lost more than $100 billion in 2007 and that number could be doubled if you add in the next 100 or so regional banks, retirement funds and investment trusts that bought into the higher rates that the CDO’s and the SIV’s offered.

As the default rate for exotic mortgages started to increase and the market for these securities dried up, the speculators lost their biggest tool that allowed them to acquire their properties. When the speculators were stymied, housing prices flattened out and in the most active areas, declined. This gave the creators of these investment vehicles, having New York as their play ground, an opportunity to blame their potential negative exposure on a housing crisis.

Our largest investment banks enticed the financial media by leaking the assumption that they had billions in exposure, all because of unscrupulous and corrupt mortgage brokers. The fact that none of these brokers would exist if it weren’t for the eagerness of the investment banks to purchase these loans, with very lucrative commissions attached, from the very brokers they now blamed. With sub-prime, alt-a and jumbo mortgages becoming prohibitively expensive, the housing market produced a constant supply of bad news that eventually sucked in even Congress. As expected they produced a landmark deal with the Treasury that accomplishes nothing, a months grace after three months of non activity is just the solution that will definitively save the market.

The financial media was also instrumental in determining the Feds current disposition. By presenting one economist, guru, potentate and mogul after another calling for rate cuts, they created a public ground swell that anything but substantial cuts would have demonstrated that the Fed was out of touch with the real world. This frenzy to inject liquidation into the economy has little to do with the housing crisis and all to do with the fact that Wall Street loves cheap money. These same investment banks are now able to book enormous profits because their cost of capital has come down so low.

When thecost of money comes down and liquidity is added to our system, the banks have money to put to work and credit standards loosen. The resulting effect of “easy credit” is always an upturn in the default rate and the banks respond by tightening those same standards. Our economy has always had swings from loose credit to tight credit and back again, the difference here is we are just entering a period where credit is starting to tighten and the Fed is literally dumping liquidity on top of a tightening market. At this point it just doesn’t matter how much money is available, if someone doesn’t qualify they will not get the loan.

The credit crunch is definitely spreading; lenders are tightening standards on all types of loans and investors have lost their appetite for “exotic” instruments that can’t be accurately valued. This is just a normal swing that happens after an abuse. The fact that “UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group last week announced the write-down of a combined $400 million” should not come as a surprise. In this atmosphere where write-downs are expected there will never be a better time to clean-up your books. They could even be tilting the books to favor future profits; this is not an unknown concept to investment banks.

As far as these write-downs being a forward looking indicator of the future doom that our corporations will experience, is quite a stretch. Our economic slow-down will have it’s casualties but for the most part our corporations are sitting on enormous cash positions, the street anticipates them to start spending these cash hoards providing the impetuses for another growth cycle in our economy.

The Great American Write-Down

The business of mortgages.
In The Mortgage Meltdown Part 1 I wrote “The widespread closures and layoffs in the mortgage industry is more than just a slow down or a shakeout, it directly points to a flawed business plan.” When you start doing No-Money-Down, Interest-Only, 100 Percent Financing, qualifying applicants on the lower “Teaser-Rates” and doing so on inflated home prices, leaves absolutely no room for error. The mortgage companies pile on significant fees and then sell those mortgages to various investment groups, many of which are listed below. Those banks sort and package those mortgages in order to either resell or issue bonds to recoup there expense. At each step the mortgage company or the bank takes their profit upfront adding to the cost of the mortgage. When the packages are funded they roll those funds into new mortgages and start all over.

It was too much money aggressively searching for deals, which ultimately drove the appreciation in housing.
There was so much pressure to produce mortgages that brokers were working every possible angle to get someone to take their money; bad credit was no problem, no money down and we’ll find a way, payment too large and we’ll up the price and get the seller to cover some of the interest, need some cash out of the deal our appraisers know the true value of the property and we love speculators because they’ll bring us lots of deals. Everyone was happy as long as they could take their profit and pass it on. There was so much stuffed on top of an already bad deal that any speed bump in the housing market could cause a crash.

Mortgages are available to qualified buyers with conservative appraisals.
Now that both the property and the financial speculator are washed out of the system, mortgages are still available to qualified buyers and at good terms. Fannie Mae and banks that didn’t handle subprime products are getting burned because of their investments into the bonds, CDO's and SIV's that were secured by these blotted mortgages.

What’s next?
Bob Janjuah, the head of credit research at RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, has estimated that the total asset value lost by the subprime mess will end up between $250 billion and $500 billion. So far the total write-downs from the 23 American companies listed below is about $71 billion just in the past eight weeks.

Everyone but Mozilo of CountryWide agree that next year will be more of the same. These numbers are only from a handful of our largest financial corporations. As listed in my article, Mortgage Industry Producing Lots of Unemployed, hundreds of smaller companies have closed and approximately 40,000 have lost their jobs in the mortgage industry. Those costs have been enormous but don’t attract the headlines and aren’t included in the headline numbers. There are also losses like CapitalOne who had a negative $670 million turn around in the third quarter when compared to the third quarter last year. These losses are also missed in the tallies.

These huge losses also ignore some very large companies like New Century, First Magnus, American Home Finance and NovaStar. The mortgage insurance industry has been devastated; most of the companies in that sector are near death like Radian, MGIC, PMI, Balboa and First American. With losses mounting in these bond portfolios, bond insurers are facing losses beyond anyone’s imagination. The rating agency Fitch has said that bond insurers have a $2.5 TRILLION problem. Ambac, ACA Capital, Security Capital, Assured Guaranty and MBIA could be looking at hundreds of billions in losses.

If you have a pension account then you have probably lost money.
Accounts in most major pension and mutual funds have lost value. Even names you wouldn’t consider when talking about mortgages like Prudential, AIG, H & R Block and E-Trade are taking losses because of their involvement into mortgages backed securities. This spreads across all spectrum's of companies that held investments because the bonds were considered safe and paid a slightly higher dividend.

When you mention to someone that CitiBank will write-off another $10 bil this year, they look at you funny and say so what. It’s not CitiBank’s money that is being lost; it’s the money from investors and pension funds. At the low end of the above prediction the average American household will lose $2,244 in asset value (investment and pension) and that number doubles to $4,488 if we hit the higher estimate.

The problem doesn’t stop at our borders.
The following banks have all had major losses and write-downs because of their U.S. investments: Deutsche Bank –Germany $3.2 billion, Credit Suisse-Switzerland $1.9 billion, UBS-Switzerland $3.6 billion, Societe General SA-France $920 million, AMP-Australia $1.4 billion, RBS-Scotland $2.7 billion, Barclays-Great Britain $2,7 billion, HSBC Holdings-Great Britain $3.4 billion and in Canada the Bank of Montreal, National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, Scotia Bank and CIBC all had losses due to their holdings of US mortgage securities.

Take a look at the following 23 profiles of the losses recently taken by our financial community. I’ve listed them separately so individual companies can be identified and additional resources are listed for each one.

There is one who called it right; Pimco Financial. Take a look, I’ve put him first. (Just above)

CountryWide

Part of a series The Great American Write-Down

CountryWide (CFC) In October CountryWide posted a $1.2 billion dollar loss, their first loss in 25 years. At the same time the company also put out a statement saying that the worst was behind them and predicted profits for the fourth quarter and 2008. The market bought into it and their stock jumped 32 percent.

From the beginning of the housing downturn Chairman and CEO Mozilo has viewed it as an economic correction; an opportunity to snatch up people and accounts from the hundreds of weaker mortgage firms closing up shop. They have been able to obtain much needed cash from Bank of America and George Soros.

It shouldn’t take to much time to find out if Mozilo is truly a wizard or charlatan. I’m voting for the later.

Articles:
Countrywide Shifting Gears But Still Aggressive
UPDATE 1-Countrywide shares plunge, default swaps surge
Schubert & Reed LLP Issues Notice of Pendency of Class Action Against Countrywide Capital V and Others
Countrywide shareholders sue CEO Mozilo, board
UPDATE 8-Countrywide posts $1.2 bln loss, stock soars on outlook

Countrywide Shifting Gears But Still Aggressive

Jonathan Stempel in his July 16th Reuters article, stated that Countrywide Financial Corp CFC, has added jobs in every month for the first half of this year. While other banks and mortgage companies where closing or severely scaling back, Countrywide viewed the drying up of the subprime funding market as an opportunity to grab market share.

Through July, the Calabasas, California-based company said it ended July with 61,586 staffers, up from 59,011 in May and 54,655 at the beginning of the year. As competitors where closing Countrywide’s revenues continued to grow.

Stuart Plesser, an analyst at Standard & Poor's, said their increase in loan volume may not be all that it seems:

“Much of Countrywide's volume gains in June came from correspondent lending -- where the company buys loans from other lenders -- rather than from more profitable retail lending,...”

“June correspondent lending grew 43 percent to $21.88 billion. Retail lending fell 5 percent to $14.04 billion. The loan servicing portfolio grew 18 percent to $1.42 trillion.”

Just four weeks later Countrywide experienced a run on its banks. From the LA Times:

“At Countrywide Bank offices, in a scene rare since the U.S. savings-and-loan crisis ended in the early '90s, so many people showed up to take out some or all of their money that in some cases they had to leave their names.”

Countrywide immediately drew down their credit lines of 11.5 billion they had with 40 banks. This bought the company some time, but the real shot-in-the-arm came a week later when Bank of America invested $2 billion in convertibles. That gave B of A a 16% ownership stake and $145 million in annual income from the 7.25% interest convertibles.

With funding for nonconventional loans disappearing, Countrywide has said that they will emphasize their mortgage activities on the mundane “plain vanilla” mortgages that Freddie and Fannie can purchase. The change in emphasis from the companies aggressive pursuit of subprime lending to “plain vanilla” mortgages has caused Countrywide to lay offs of 500, 900 and now as many as 12,000.

On September 7 Countrywide put out a Press Release and stated that they plan to fund their subprime loan activity internally. “Migration of the Company's residential lending business into its federally chartered thrift entity, Countrywide Bank, FSB, will continue.” With the portfolio of subprime loans showing abysmal results, the profits from these loans must be excessive.


From a Gretchen Morgenson article for the The New York Times:

“Countrywide's entire operation, from its computer system to its incentive pay structure and financing arrangements, is intended to wring maximum profits out of the mortgage lending boom no matter what it costs borrowers, according to interviews with former employees and brokers who worked in different units of the company and internal documents they provided. One document, for instance, shows that until last September the computer system in the company's subprime unit excluded borrowers' cash reserves, which had the effect of steering them away from lower-cost loans to those that were more expensive to homeowners and more profitable to Countrywide.”

“Homeowners, meanwhile, drawn in by Countrywide sales scripts assuring ''the best loan possible,'' are behind on their mortgages in record numbers. As of June 30, almost one in four subprime loans that Countrywide services was delinquent, up from 15 percent in the same period last year, according to company filings. Almost 10 percent were delinquent by 90 days or more, compared with last year's rate of 5.35 percent.”

“Many of these loans had interest rates that recently reset from low teaser levels to double digits; others carry prohibitive prepayment penalties that have made refinancing impossibly expensive, even before this month's upheaval in the mortgage markets.”

'In terms of being unresponsive to what was happening, to sticking it out the longest, and continuing to justify the garbage they were selling, Countrywide was the worst lender,'' said Ira Rheingold, executive director of the National Association of Consumer Advocates. ''And anytime states tried to pass responsible lending laws, Countrywide was fighting it tooth and nail.'

“Mr. Mozilo has ridden this remarkable wave to immense riches, thanks to generous annual stock option grants. Rarely a buyer of Countrywide shares — he has not bought a share since 1987, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings — he has been a huge seller in recent years. Since the company listed its shares on the New York Stock Exchange in 1984, he has reaped $406 million selling Countrywide stock.”

One very unhappy customer of Countrywide has a website, Countrywidehomeloansucks.com where hundreds of unhappy customers and ex-employees have told their stories. It does not paint an admirable picture of the company.

Countrywide Info Needed

Rumors and gossip has been flowing all weekend about what might happen at Countrywide. Today an AP article said that an E-mail was cited by the WSJ that layoffs were going to happen at their Full Spectrum Lending unit. That AP article cited Countrywide with 61,000 employees, and a newer LATimes article lists them with 18,000, either way layoffs could have a huge effect.

If you have any info, please leave a comment or an E-mail through my profile page. Confidentiality is assured.