What Is A Derivative

No one is asking the right questions.

Since the government has now committed to purchase $700,000,000,000 (I think I’ve gotten all the zeros right) in the toxic paper that the banks, domestic and foreign, are holding as assets on their books, I felt it was time to give my vast audience my view of what the government will be purchasing with our tax dollars.

Dictionary.com explains simply: a financial contract whose value derives from the value of underlying stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, etc. Riskglossary.com defines derivative as: A derivative instrument (or simply derivative) is a financial instrument which derives its value from the value of some other financial instrument or variable.

OK, that tells us that a derivative is a contract-on-a-contract. But what is in these contracts that the average American will now own. Why have the banks cut the value in financial instruments to the point that causes them to go out of business?

Money was raised for home and commercial mortgages by issuing bonds. The banks that originated the mortgage would sell it to someone like Fannie, Freddie or one of the other commercial banks. They would bundle the mortgages and send them to the rating agencies. The rating agencies would rate the best of the bunch as AAA and the rest could be divided up into 15 lower ratings. Since many pension funds, insurance companies, financial institutions or investment groups require a AAA rating on the bonds they purchase, the lower rated bonds have to pay a premium interest rate to entice the sale of these bonds.

That’s where derivatives come in. Thanks to the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 and its’ reworking in 1995, Congress allowed the banks to become more inventive with the way they sell and fund mortgages. The lower rated bonds are re-bundled with other contracts that could be anything from options and warrants (a contract allowing the purchase of stock at a future date at a specified price), or other types of debt obligations to other bonds themselves. This process snowed the rating agencies to re-rate 96% of the lower rated securities as AAA.

We don’t know what we’re buying. We don’t know what we’re paying for it. But we’re sure it is going to work and hey, we could even make something. This is from the people that voted multiple times against increased regulations to control Fannie and Freddie.

The point is that no one is asking the right questions. The banks and the rating agencies have records to show what is in each of these bundles, but I have not heard one banker or politician ask for that information. It’s time a little light is thrown on this stuff. How can we effectively regulate if we don’t know what we’re regulating. No more free passes.

The Great American Write-Down

The business of mortgages.
In The Mortgage Meltdown Part 1 I wrote “The widespread closures and layoffs in the mortgage industry is more than just a slow down or a shakeout, it directly points to a flawed business plan.” When you start doing No-Money-Down, Interest-Only, 100 Percent Financing, qualifying applicants on the lower “Teaser-Rates” and doing so on inflated home prices, leaves absolutely no room for error. The mortgage companies pile on significant fees and then sell those mortgages to various investment groups, many of which are listed below. Those banks sort and package those mortgages in order to either resell or issue bonds to recoup there expense. At each step the mortgage company or the bank takes their profit upfront adding to the cost of the mortgage. When the packages are funded they roll those funds into new mortgages and start all over.

It was too much money aggressively searching for deals, which ultimately drove the appreciation in housing.
There was so much pressure to produce mortgages that brokers were working every possible angle to get someone to take their money; bad credit was no problem, no money down and we’ll find a way, payment too large and we’ll up the price and get the seller to cover some of the interest, need some cash out of the deal our appraisers know the true value of the property and we love speculators because they’ll bring us lots of deals. Everyone was happy as long as they could take their profit and pass it on. There was so much stuffed on top of an already bad deal that any speed bump in the housing market could cause a crash.

Mortgages are available to qualified buyers with conservative appraisals.
Now that both the property and the financial speculator are washed out of the system, mortgages are still available to qualified buyers and at good terms. Fannie Mae and banks that didn’t handle subprime products are getting burned because of their investments into the bonds, CDO's and SIV's that were secured by these blotted mortgages.

What’s next?
Bob Janjuah, the head of credit research at RBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, has estimated that the total asset value lost by the subprime mess will end up between $250 billion and $500 billion. So far the total write-downs from the 23 American companies listed below is about $71 billion just in the past eight weeks.

Everyone but Mozilo of CountryWide agree that next year will be more of the same. These numbers are only from a handful of our largest financial corporations. As listed in my article, Mortgage Industry Producing Lots of Unemployed, hundreds of smaller companies have closed and approximately 40,000 have lost their jobs in the mortgage industry. Those costs have been enormous but don’t attract the headlines and aren’t included in the headline numbers. There are also losses like CapitalOne who had a negative $670 million turn around in the third quarter when compared to the third quarter last year. These losses are also missed in the tallies.

These huge losses also ignore some very large companies like New Century, First Magnus, American Home Finance and NovaStar. The mortgage insurance industry has been devastated; most of the companies in that sector are near death like Radian, MGIC, PMI, Balboa and First American. With losses mounting in these bond portfolios, bond insurers are facing losses beyond anyone’s imagination. The rating agency Fitch has said that bond insurers have a $2.5 TRILLION problem. Ambac, ACA Capital, Security Capital, Assured Guaranty and MBIA could be looking at hundreds of billions in losses.

If you have a pension account then you have probably lost money.
Accounts in most major pension and mutual funds have lost value. Even names you wouldn’t consider when talking about mortgages like Prudential, AIG, H & R Block and E-Trade are taking losses because of their involvement into mortgages backed securities. This spreads across all spectrum's of companies that held investments because the bonds were considered safe and paid a slightly higher dividend.

When you mention to someone that CitiBank will write-off another $10 bil this year, they look at you funny and say so what. It’s not CitiBank’s money that is being lost; it’s the money from investors and pension funds. At the low end of the above prediction the average American household will lose $2,244 in asset value (investment and pension) and that number doubles to $4,488 if we hit the higher estimate.

The problem doesn’t stop at our borders.
The following banks have all had major losses and write-downs because of their U.S. investments: Deutsche Bank –Germany $3.2 billion, Credit Suisse-Switzerland $1.9 billion, UBS-Switzerland $3.6 billion, Societe General SA-France $920 million, AMP-Australia $1.4 billion, RBS-Scotland $2.7 billion, Barclays-Great Britain $2,7 billion, HSBC Holdings-Great Britain $3.4 billion and in Canada the Bank of Montreal, National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada, Scotia Bank and CIBC all had losses due to their holdings of US mortgage securities.

Take a look at the following 23 profiles of the losses recently taken by our financial community. I’ve listed them separately so individual companies can be identified and additional resources are listed for each one.

There is one who called it right; Pimco Financial. Take a look, I’ve put him first. (Just above)